Interest Rate Predictions Australia: Will The RBA Raise Rates In November?

All four major banks now predict the RBA will raise the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November 2026. CBA and NAB changed their forecasts after the 28 October inflation release, joining ANZ and Westpac.

A bank forecast is not an RBA decision; another increase is not guaranteed.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its decision at 2.30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November 2026. Its cash rate target is currently 4.60%, following September’s 0.25-percentage-point increase. The cash rate influences home loan pricing but is not the interest rate borrowers pay on their mortgages.

Annual headline inflation reached 4.3% in September. The ABS monthly trimmed mean series shows 3.6% over the year to September.These results keep inflation central to the November decision.

For buyers and existing borrowers, the decision matters because higher home loan rates can change repayments, borrowing capacity and the room left in a household budget.

Big Four Bank Interest Rate Predictions For November 2026

CBA, Westpac, NAB and ANZ all forecast a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 4.85% on 3 November 2026.

Commonwealth Bank Interest Rate Forecast

CBA now expects a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 4.85% in November, having previously forecast a hold.

CBA said the September CPI result supported a further increase to guard against inflation remaining elevated. It also acknowledged that five increases during 2026 would weigh on the economy and that the November decision might not be unanimous.

Westpac Interest Rate Forecast

Westpac continues to forecast a November increase to 4.85%. Chief Economist Luci Ellis said the inflation data and RBA Senate testimony reinforced that view.

Westpac also identified a growing risk of another increase, most likely in February. That is a risk to its outlook, rather than confirmation that a February rise will occur.

NAB Interest Rate Forecast

NAB now expects a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 4.85% in November, reversing its previous hold forecast.

NAB pointed to persistent inflation pressure, elevated energy costs and the RBA’s assessment that the labour market was tighter than previously thought. Its updated view allows for a pause after November, while acknowledging that inflation risks remain.

ANZ Interest Rate Forecast

ANZ maintains its forecast for a November increase to 4.85%. It said the latest CPI data strengthened the case for another rise, citing oil prices, AI-related demand and domestic capacity constraints.

What Do Home Loan Experts Brokers Think?

Home Loan Experts Senior Mortgage Broker Jonathan Preston considers another rate increase a possibility.

For buyers, his broader point is that interest rates are only one part of the purchase decision. Where a property can be bought for less, the lower purchase price may partly offset higher borrowing costs.

For existing owners, Jonathan emphasises assessing whether the household can sustain ownership through changes in repayments and property values. Decisions about retaining or selling a home need to reflect the borrower’s circumstances and the costs involved.

What Would A 0.25-Percentage-Point Rate Rise Mean For My Mortgage?

A 0.25-percentage-point cash rate rise would take the RBA target from 4.60% to 4.85%. Your mortgage repayment would change only if your lender adjusts your home loan rate. The dollar impact depends on your balance, current rate and remaining term.

For variable-rate borrowers, the effect would depend on whether their lender changes the home loan rate, how much it passes through, and when the change takes effect. A cash rate increase does not automatically change every mortgage by the same amount.

Borrowers with fixed rates generally retain their agreed rate during the fixed period. Those approaching expiry should check the repayment that would apply afterwards.

Before the announcement, use our RBA cash rate change calculator to compare your current repayments with scenarios involving another 0.25- or 0.50-percentage-point increase.

Should Buyers Wait For Interest Rates To Fall?

There is no guarantee that waiting for interest rates to fall will make a home more affordable. Purchase prices, available loans and your own finances can also change.

Before making an unconditional offer or bidding at auction, check that your borrowing capacity assessment remains appropriate. Avoid stretching the budget on the assumption that rates will fall or refinancing will become available.

How Should Mortgage Holders Prepare For Christmas And Early 2027?

The RBA has another monetary policy meeting scheduled for 7–8 December 2026, after November’s decision. A November hold would therefore not remove the possibility of another rate change before Christmas.

Allow for mortgage repayments alongside holiday spending and annual bills. Check how much room remains in your budget if repayments increase, and review any fixed rate expiry approaching over summer.

If repayments are already becoming difficult, contact your lender early to discuss assistance. A broker can also help assess your loan options, although refinancing will depend on eligibility and whether the costs and benefits suit your circumstances.

Should You Fix Or Refinance Before The RBA Decision?

You do not need to fix or refinance solely because an RBA meeting is approaching. The appropriate choice depends on your existing loan, available alternatives and need for repayment certainty.

A fixed rate can provide repayment certainty, but compare the available rate, restrictions on extra repayments, offset features and potential break costs. A split loan may suit some borrowers who want a combination of certainty and flexibility.

When comparing refinancing options, compare the total cost of your existing loan with suitable alternatives, including fees and any change to the remaining term. Waiting for an RBA announcement does not guarantee a better offer.

Review Your Home Loan Before The RBA Decision

Whether the RBA raises rates or holds, understanding your current loan can help you make a more informed decision.

Home Loan Experts can review your repayments, borrowing capacity and available loan options, including how another rate increase could affect your position.

Please call us on 1300 889 743 or enquire online and one of our commercial mortgage brokers will get back to you with some options.

This information is general in nature and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Interest rate forecasts can change as new economic information becomes available.